New Video: Climate 2013 – the View from AGU

December 19, 2012

Just published on the Yale Forum on Climate Change & the Media.

I talked to a whole lot of scientists at this year’s American Geophysical Union Conference, and a number of them took time for interviews.  I’ll be building videos around these in the coming year, but for now, here is a sampling of perspectives on what we know now, and what we’re looking for in 2013.

Included are Charles Miller of NASA JPL and Ben Abbott of U. of Alaska, on permafrost. Texas A&M’s Andrew Dessler on Extreme weather attributions, Eric Rignot of JPL on polar ice, Robert Rohde, lead scientists of Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, Ben Santer on IPCC models and the upcoming report,  Ted Scambos of National Snow and Ice Data Center – on Snow and Ice Data,  and Jason Box of Byrd Center on Greenland melt.

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36 Responses to “New Video: Climate 2013 – the View from AGU”


  1. [...] New Video: Climate 2013 – the View from AGU: “I talked to a whole lot of scientists at this year’s American Geophysical Union Conference, and a number of them took time for interviews.  I’ll be building videos around these in the coming year, but for now, here is a sampling of perspectives on what we know now, and what we’re looking for in 2013.” [...]


  2. … defend the science …

    Arctic ice …

    Science daily – about Bauch (2012) work (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/07/120716214457.htm): “… climate models predict that heat transfer from the North Atlantic to the Arctic may increase over the 21st century. “It could even lead to ice-free conditions in the Arctic.”
    “But during warm interglacial periods the effect of a fresh surface ocean on the AMOC may be muted.” “… the Arctic may have been colder during the Eemian, with lower heat transfer from the North Atlantic.”
    „Their finding also challenges climate models that predict extreme warmth and ice-free conditions in the Arctic in response to greenhouse gas warming in the 21st century.”

    McKay (2008, http://bprc.osu.edu/geo/publications/mckay_etal_CJES_08.pdf) “If both the observed and reconstructed time series are correct, then the last part of the 20th century must have been particularly cold [...] compared with the mid- to late Holocene in the Chukchi Sea, which is opposite to what is seen in the eastern Arctic and northern Baffin Bay (e.g., de Vernal et al. 2008). This hypothesis implies a STRONG REGIONALISM in climate changes over the Arctic …”

    (http://www.polarresearch.net/index.php/polar/article/view/18690): „Sea-ice cover anomalies in the Arctic Basin associated with atmospheric variability from multi-decadal trends to intermittent QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATIONS.” (Ikeda, 2012.)

    (http://www.leif.org/EOS/2010JC006264.pdf) Sejrup, (2010):
    “The observed ocean temperature response is LARGER than expected based on SIMPLE THERMODYNAMIC CONSIDERATIONS, indicating that there is dynamical response of the high latitude ocean to the Sun.”

    Melles (2012, http://www.geo.umass.edu/lake_e/SOM1222135s.pdf):
    “Climate simulations show that these extreme warm conditions are difficult to explain with greenhouse gas and astronomical forcing alone, implying the importance of amplifying feedbacks and far field influences. The timing of Arctic warming relative to West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreats implies strong interhemispheric climate connectivity.”

    … extreme events, e.g. hurricanes …

    “In the middle of Cretaceous [very warm period] towards weakly marked the temperature gradient, winds blowing over the oceans, were generally much weaker than those occurring today …” (professor S. Stanley, “Earth System History”, 1999).

    Dispatch from AGU – year ago – 2011 (http://blog.chron.com/climateabyss/2011/12/dispatch-from-agu-an-equable-climate-curveball/): “So in both seasons [both warm periods: mid-Holocene 6,000 years ago and the last interglacial period 125,000 years ago], the detectable segment of the pole-to-equator temperature difference was smaller than at present, and at high latitudes the seasons were less dramatic than at present. Climate models don’t do this.”

    Not yet published work Knutson (2012, http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/ksvgzkbthv_12_zetac.pdf)

    “The projection of more frequent intense hurricanes is statistically significant for the CMIP3 ensemble climate change, but only nominally positive, and not statistically significant, for the CMIP5 ensemble.”
    “… intensity projected for the Atlantic basin showed relatively small changes in some studies, ranging even to negative values for some individual models that were analyzed (e.g., Vecchi and Soden 2007).”

    It is worth remembering. Therapy of cancer always has many (dangerous even for life) side effects.

    We spend 1 or maybe 2% of world GDP, we need to know what.

  3. MorinMoss Says:

    1 BILLION gals / yr from long haul trucks idling while they sleep?

    • rayduray Says:

      Morin,

      Re: “1 BILLION gals / yr from long haul trucks idling while they sleep?”

      One of the smart things out here in the West is the development of auxiliary power, AC and heat hook-ups at truck stops. I’ve seen announcements for grid based hookups at several truckstops along the I-5 corridor. Costs seem quite reasonable.

      That’s the carrot, and then there is also the stick: http://tinyurl.com/cbp28mj

  4. rayduray Says:

    New Video: James Hansen on Climate Tippping Points:

  5. rayduray Says:

    Another recent YouTube video that does a great job in summarizing our plight and dilemma in under an hour. Hosted by a couple of folk who tie the issue of climate back into the comfort zone of Christian care for the stewardship of the planet.

    It’s time to act. That’s the message I take away:


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