Hurricane Update: Mega Storm Threat Growing
October 25, 2012
Capitol Weather Gang 0315 am thursday, 10/25:
There is a consensus forming in weather forecast models that hurricane Sandy is unlikely to go out to sea. Instead, it more likely will merge with a strong fall cold front and transition into a powerhouse, possibly historic mid-latitude storm along the mid-Atlantic and/or Northeast coast Sunday through Wednesday.
The majority of models now take Sandy from its current position just west of Santiago de Cuba in southern Cuba before curving the storm towards either the mid-Atlantic or Northeast coast. Models disagree on where the storm will recurve and make landfall: simulations vary from the mid-Atlantic to Maine. There remains a chance, though diminishing, the storm will slide harmlessly out to sea.
Below, US Navy model run from the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC)
Weather Channel – US Northeast an “Area of Concern”:
- Sandy will move northward through the northwest Bahamas on Friday and essentially parallel the southeast U.S. coast this weekend. As it does so, its wind field will expand tremendously. Whether or not Sandy turns back toward the northeast U.S., its effects will be far-reaching, with growing confidence in a high-impact event to the northeast U.S. by early next week.
- Potential impacts from the mid-Atlantic through the northeast include widespread wind damage, long-duration power outages, battering waves, and coastal flooding from storm surge. Inland flooding and heavy snow accumulations over the central Appalachians are also possible.