Hurricane Update: Mega Storm Threat Growing

October 25, 2012

Capitol Weather Gang 0315 am thursday, 10/25:

There is a consensus forming in weather forecast models that hurricane Sandy is unlikely to go out to sea. Instead, it more likely will merge with a strong fall cold front and transition into a powerhouse, possibly historic mid-latitude storm along the mid-Atlantic and/or Northeast coast Sunday through Wednesday.

The majority of models now take Sandy from its current position just west of Santiago de Cuba in southern Cuba before curving the storm towards either the mid-Atlantic or Northeast coast. Models disagree on where the storm will recurve and make landfall: simulations vary from the mid-Atlantic to Maine. There remains a chance, though diminishing, the storm will slide harmlessly out to sea.

Below, US Navy model run from the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC)

Weather Channel - US Northeast an “Area of Concern”:

- Sandy will move northward through the northwest Bahamas on Friday and essentially parallel the southeast U.S. coast this weekend. As it does so, its wind field will expand tremendously. Whether or not Sandy turns back toward the northeast U.S., its effects will be far-reaching, with growing confidence in a high-impact event to the northeast U.S. by early next week.

- Potential impacts from the mid-Atlantic through the northeast include widespread wind damage, long-duration power outages, battering waves, and coastal flooding from storm surge. Inland flooding and heavy snow accumulations over the central Appalachians are also possible.

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23 Responses to “Hurricane Update: Mega Storm Threat Growing”

  1. omnologos Says:

    What’ll prevent this from dissipating upon hitting the southern US?


  2. [...] watching the progress of tropical storm Sandy as it heads on a course that may bring it ashore on the US east [...]

  3. rayduray Says:

    Re: “What’ll prevent this from dissipating upon hitting the southern US?”

    Omno,

    I’d strongly encourage you to consider rejoining us in the reality-based community. Instead of posing ignorant questions here, let me suggest you read the excellent blogs at the Weather Underground website. especially the work of Dr. Jeff Masters, a former hurricane chaser who has flown through dozens of hurricanes in his early career. He’s got a lively community of followers on his blog who while amateurs are a vital component of the best damn education anyone is going to get on how Hurricane Sandy will develop. Pay attention. And remember, children should be seen and not heard. Especially when their questions reflect a severe disconnection from reality.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

    See alsio:

    • ahaveland Says:

      Ray, I agree with you, but please use the appropriate Reply link to keep conversation threads intact!

      • rayduray Says:

        ahaveland,

        There seems to have been a glitch in the Word Press system. I’m 98% certain I tried to thread the omno reply. Dunno why it went to the new comment mode. Sorry.

        • omnologos Says:

          You do have elaborate ways to say ‘I don’t know’ and ‘I just follow whatever people I believe in tell me to follow’. Not surprisingly, I may add.

          • NevenA Says:

            Omnologos, what’ll prevent this from making landfall and doing major damage?

          • omnologos Says:

            That’s not what I asked.

            Accuweather has it following the East Coast from a bit out then turning north-west towards NYC. So it doesn’t actually make “complete” landfall until later on, hence it won’t dissipate quickly.

          • NevenA Says:

            You do have elaborate ways to say ‘I don’t know’ and ‘I just follow whatever people I believe in tell me to follow’. Not surprisingly, I may add.

            God, what a boring game you play. :-|

          • omnologos Says:

            NevenA – thanks again for not answering my question.

          • NevenA Says:

            Omnologos – you appear unfamiliar with the concept of asking questions rather than believing everything you read.

          • omnologos Says:

            Au contraire, I am the only one asking questions ’round here.

            Anyway…latest update on Accuweather has the landfall slightly more to the South, but it’s a moot point as the largest potential for disaster is to the north-west of that. They appear concerned by the path, as if it stays out at sea for a while before veering left, people might be fooled into believing it was all hype.

            For once, it looks like the right balance has been found between alarmism and dismissal.

  4. jbowers2 Says:

    Omnologos, why not ask meteorologist Anthony Watts? As author of a recent post at WUWT, I’d have thought you’d trust his opinion more than any expert scientific sources Peter could reliably come up with?


  5. [...] Capitol Weather Gang 0315 am thursday, 10/25: There is a consensus forming in weather forecast models that hurricane Sandy is unlikely to go out to sea. Instead, it more likely will merge with a st…  [...]

  6. rayduray Says:

    Levi Cowan of Tropic Tidbit has just posted this update. Some key predictions:

    1) Epic conditions in the U.S. Northeast
    2) Landfall probable between New Jersey and Cape Cod
    3) Entrained arctic air on backside could result in two feet of snow in West VA.
    4) Much rearranging of the beach furniture over a wide area.

  7. omnologos Says:

    What are the provisions if it affects Election Day? Will the polling stations be closed at State level? Or nationally?

    • skeptictmac57 Says:

      Well,you can take this prediction to the bank:
      If the storm significantly disrupts voting in a wide region,whichever party/candidate loses the election will be crying ‘foul…weather!!!’.

  8. jbowers2 Says:

    Good opportunity for the Dems to forcefully point out the GOP’s war on agencies involved in hurricane and extreme weather science. Could be a Hugh Hammond Bennett moment.

  9. rayduray Says:

    Goldilocks’ “Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold, Not Too Wet, Not Too Dry” seems to be becoming inoperative in the age of Man-Amplified Climate Catastrophes (The MACC truck of our age):

    This one is NOT man-made. But it sure as heck could be man-enabled:


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