“I am very worried”
October 24, 2012
“I’m very worried about Sandy – and how this storm could alter the 2012
election….Obama needs to get out in front of this, and not risk a Katrina-like debacle.
The attachment is the ECMWF solution (which has been consistent) showing a
Category 3 hurricane off the coast of New Jersey Monday evening. If this
solution verifies the damage for New York City and Long Island could be
“I don’t want to hype the storm, but …. this could
be the (real) October Surprise.”
UPDATE: An experienced long time observer fills in some blanks, and makes the climate and sea-ice connection-
A very interesting situation is developing, to be sure. One other tidbit to keep in mind is that the forecast models are notoriously poor at handling the evolution of blocks (which is a key ingredient in this case) and equally poor at handling big slugs of energy from tropical systems interacting with mid-latitude systems and the jet stream.This shortcoming is certainly playing a role in the widely diverging projections from different models, and even from the same model run more than once. The Euro model is usually one of the best because they do a fantastic job of incorporating satellite information into their starting conditions, and this is very important especially for storms out over the water where there are no weather balloons to get information about upper-level winds, temperatures, and moisture content.So I think the potential for an unusually strong storm is substantial, but many pieces must fall into place for it to happen. And one other thought, while very negative NAOs are not unknown this time of year, it’s certainly what I’d expect to see occurring more frequently in association with the huge ice loss this summer.