If You’re Under 35, You’ve Never Experienced “Normal” Temperatures

March 20, 2012

The current spring heat wave in eastern North America and elsewhere is surely getting a lot of people’s attention, but younger people, under 35, may not fully appreciate the degree to which it’s surprising to their older siblings, fathers or mothers.

NOAA:

The year 2011 tied with 1997 as the 11th warmest year since records began in 1880. The annually-averaged temperature over global land and ocean surfaces was 0.51°C (0.92°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F).   This marks the 35th consecutive year (since 1976) that the yearly global temperature was above the 20th century average.   The warmest years on record were 2010 and 2005, which were 0.64°C (1.15°F) above average. Including 2011, all eleven years in the 21st century so far (2001–2011) rank among the 13 warmest in the 132-year period of record. Only one year during the 20th century, 1998, was warmer than 2011.

Meanwhile, New UK Temperature Dataset released. 1998 no longer warmest year

Between 1998 and 2010, temperatures rose by 0.11C, 0.04C more than previously estimated.

The new data set also shifts around the hottest years on record, so that the new temperature series, known as HadCRUT4, is more in line with other global records held by NASA and NOAA in the US. The American series had already added Arctic temperatures from extrapolated information.

Before it was thought the hottest years were 1998 followed by 2010, 2005, 2003 and 2002. The updated series puts 2010 as the hottest year on record followed by 2005, 1998, 2003 and 2006.

The main conclusions of the new temperature series remains the same – that overall warming since 1850 has been around 0.75C and the 10 warmest years on record all occurred in the last 14 years.

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Professor Phil Jones, director of CRU, who was at the heart of the Climategate scandal, said the temperature series is slightly warmer because it includes the new data from the Arctic, where the world is warming faster.

Most of the new data came from weather stations controlled by Russian scientists.

“HadCRUT is underpinned by observations and we’ve previously been clear it may not be fully capturing changes in the Arctic because we have had so little data from the area,” he said.

“For the latest version we have included observations from more than 400 stations across the Arctic, Russia and Canada. This has led to better representation of what’s going on in the large geographical region,” said Prof Jones.

The differences between two of the world’s most widely quoted temperature data sets, the NASA GISSTemp set, and the UK HadCRUT, have been responsible for a lot of confusion about what global temperatures are doing, and lead to the continued resilience of canards like “It’s been cooling since 1998″.  With the differences now addressed, the two sets are more in accord.  Met Office video below -

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11 Responses to “If You’re Under 35, You’ve Never Experienced “Normal” Temperatures”

  1. Peter Mizla Says:

    I remember Connecticut from a mere 20 years ago- this is not normal.

  2. otter17 Says:

    Huh, I’ve never known a normal Earth climate. That is an interesting thought.

  3. owlbrudder Says:

    At my age (60), I cannot claim to have noticed a .75 degree change, even allowing for the fact that my local (Queensland, Australia) change may have been much different. On the other hand, I have noticed the increasing frequency and severity of weather events here, which are reliably credited to the observed warming. It is interesting to see how relatively trivial changes in average temperature translate into lethal storms, floods and droughts. Further outlook: changeable weather, in ways we won’t like.

    • greenman3610 Says:

      those of us who spent a lot of time outdoors growing up, especially in an area like mine – upper midwest US – where there are 4 distinct seasons.
      Hansen’s 88 testimony confirmed for me some things I was already observing.


  4. “Professor Phil Jones, director of CRU, who was at the heart of the Climategate scandal…”
    One definition of scandal from Merriam Webster:
    “loss of or damage to reputation caused by actual or APPARENT violation of morality or propriety”
    So, papers have the right to keep calling it a scandal into eternity, even if they know 99,9999% of readers will take away the wrong conclusion.

    Also, it’s quite funny to see the deniers call the adjustments fraud. Of course, UAH would never, ever make any adjustment. And when they do, and the result shows less warming, it was for valid reasons, proof of how truthful skeptical scientists are for not getting dragged into the hype.

  5. Martin Lack Says:

    Those in denial of reality will probably still be in denial when extreme events (be that flooding in Genoa or a drought in Texas) reach 5 standard deviations outside the long-term average. As for me 3 Std. Dev. is plenty, thanks.
    The solution to all our problems (13 March 2012).


  6. [...] If you’re under 35, you’ve never experienced “normal” temperatures (via Climate Crocks) Recommendations [...]


  7. [...] If you’re under the age of 35, you’ve never experienced “normal” temperatures despite a weakening sun. In fact, February 1985 was the last time global mean monthly average was below the twentieth-century average. Already, climate has shifted to a new state. That state can only be described as dire. And yet because Earth’s climate system behaves in a nonlinear manner, future changes could occur very rapidly, making it seem as if more than three decades without a below-normal temperature reading were the good ol’ days. [...]


  8. [...] If you’re under the age of 35, you’ve never experienced “normal” temperatures despite a weakening sun. In fact, February 1985 was the last time global mean monthly average was below the twentieth-century average. Already, climate has shifted to a new state. That state can only be described as dire. And yet because Earth’s climate system behaves in a nonlinear manner, future changes could occur very rapidly, making it seem as if more than three decades without a below-normal temperature reading were the good ol’ days. [...]


  9. [...] you’re under the age of 35, you’ve never experienced “normal” temperatures despite a weakening sun. In fact, February 1985 was the last time global mean monthly average was [...]


  10. [...] you’re under the age of 35, you’ve never experienced “normal” temperatures despite a weakening sun. In fact, February 1985 was the last time global mean monthly average was [...]


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