Dead Denial Walking. (Yet another) Confirmation of Global Warming. Can We Get Real Now?

October 20, 2011

Dot Earth: 

Anthony Watts and others who have energized climate skeptics by claiming to poke holes in research showing substantial recent warming have their work cut out for them.

Richard Muller, a noted Berkeley physicist who’s been a strident critic of climate campaigners, has released a much-anticipated new package of studies, along with all of his team’s data and methods, that powerfully challenges one of the prime talking points of pundits and politicians trying to avoid a shift away from fossil fuels.

The assertion has been that the world hasn’t really warmed — just the thermometers — due to expanding asphalt and concrete around cities and other locations housing weather stations.

In an email, study Co-author Robert Rohde says:

Our results are very similar to prior work (though with smaller error bars).   Even though we have included a variety of innovative techniques in our analysis that approach potential biases in new ways we arrive at essentially the same conclusions as prior studies.

More on this story soon as the material is analyzed.

Full Data and papers submitted available here.


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11 Responses to “Dead Denial Walking. (Yet another) Confirmation of Global Warming. Can We Get Real Now?”

  1. hengistmcstone Says:

    I’ve just had a look at Anthony’s blog. These words jumped out at me: ‘The issue of “the world is warming” is not one that climate skeptics question’ Yes Anthony Watts has just conceded. This is a historic day, or maybe Anthony will eat his words.

    • otter17 Says:

      I’m guessing that he will still find something to latch onto and proclaim that an ice age is imminent or we are having a cold snap or whatever.

      Nevertheless, this may start a shift to a true acceptance that the world is warming, albeit via solely natural causes in the WUWT mind. Watts seems to have been pretty accepting this year concerning the Arctic sea ice news. Maybe we aren’t too far off from Watts accepting that CO2 is the cause. I mean, when you accept that this fast rate of warming is occurring at the same time as a fast rate of CO2 increase, eventually someone is going to put 2 and 2 together.

    • Martin_Lack Says:

      Dear hengismcstone,

      Thanks for alerting me to this. Having read what Anthony has got to say in full, I decided it was worth tackling him regarding his hypocrisy (i.e. attacking BEST for not observing proper peer review process and for their haste in publishing ahead of COP17 in Durban); as is now visible on WUWT; and on my own Blog. So, stand-by for the fireworks!

      Martin.

      P.S. Thanks also to Peter/CDC for posting this stuff in the first place!


  2. [...] Today’s news about the Berkeley Earth Temperature results is the more interesting because team leader Richard Muller has all but slandered previous temperature records from NASA and other groups.  The story is outlined in the video above. [...]


  3. very interesting information to say the least- so Muller’s project concurs with every other scientific organization.

    checked out Watts site- is is smoldering…….funny.


  4. [...] Dead Denial Walking. (Yet another) Confirmation of Global Warming. Can We Get Real Now? « Climate D… [...]

  5. daveburton Says:

    “The assertion has been that the world hasn’t really warmed — just the thermometers — due to expanding asphalt and concrete around cities and other locations housing weather stations.”

    Nonsense. Who says that?

    Of course the surface station siting problems that Watts et al have so ably identified call into question the reliability of the temperature record, but that doesn’t mean that “the world hasn’t really warmed.”

    Making up things that your debate opponent didn’t actually say, and then attacking them for what they didn’t actually say, is a disreputable form of argumentation called “straw man.”

    The issue has always been how much has the world warmed (and why, and with what consequences, and the projections for the future).

    Nobody I know of disputes that the world is at least somewhat warmer now, on average, than it was 100 or 110 years ago.

    Now, what would really be news is if the climate alarmists here would finally admit that the rate of sea level rise has not increased at all in response to the (presumably anthropogenic) increase of atmospheric CO2 from ~300 ppm to ~400 ppm over the last ~ 2/3 century.

    • greenman3610 Says:

      the sheer volume of arm waving and key jingling is astonishing.

      From Watts:(http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/surfacestationsreport_spring09.pdf)
      “In other words, 9 of every 10 stations are likely reporting higher or rising temperatures because they are badly sited.

      It gets worse. We observed that changes in the technology of temperature stations over time also has caused them to report
      a false warming trend. We found major gaps in the data record that were filled in with data from nearby sites, a practice
      that propagates and compounds errors. We found that adjustments to the data by both NOAA and another government
      agency, NASA, cause recent temperatures to look even higher.

      The conclusion is inescapable: The U.S. temperature record is unreliable.

      The errors in the record exceed by a wide margin the purported rise in temperature of 0.7o C (about 1.2o F) during the
      twentieth century. Consequently, this record should not be cited as evidence of any trend in temperature that may have
      occurred across the U.S. during the past century. Since the U.S. record is thought to be “the best in the world,” it follows
      that the global database is likely similarly compromised and unreliable.”

      Now Watt’s OWN RESEARCH, as well as the Muller group, has shown this charlatan’s ONLY claim to fame to be entirely imaginary, a fabrication -
      and we can see that this issue was never about reason, never about science, never about fact – but about blind ideological unwillingness to believe what the planet is showing us.
      People get punked, by and large, because they want to believe in something so badly, that they do not believe the plain evidence against the preferred belief.
      What’s sad is that deniers will once again use a revelatory moment to continue to punk themselves, and as many others as they can still bamboozle.

    • sinchiroca Says:

      “Nobody I know of disputes that the world is at least somewhat warmer now, on average, than it was 100 or 110 years ago.”

      Perhaps not today, but certainly in the recent past. Do you not recall the many, many declarations that the world has cooled since 1998? The many, many claims that the hockey stick was not merely unsubstantiated, but flat wrong? The denial of temperature increases was a major component of the denialist movement for years. Over the last five years or so, we have seen fewer such claims, as denialists have been swamped by the flood of data discrediting their claims. But to deny the earlier denial is, well, denialism squared.

      Regarding sea level change, let me first remind you that the bulk of the temperature change has been in the last 30 years; therefore, the effect that we’re looking for must be sought in the sea level data for the last 30 years. Have you looked at that graph? The error bars in those numbers are pretty big. If the first derivative of sea level with time has error bars of such magnitude, the second derivative — which is what you’re looking for — will be even harder to find in the noise.

      Remember, sea level change is a response to temperature increases. Therefore, it lags temperature increases. There is no justification for expecting sea level rise to instantly track temperature increases; therefore your objection is unjustified.


  6. [...] Tanks around the world, I would venture to suggest that BEST may have also done this to try and hasten the final nails being put driven into the coffin of those that seek to perpetuate a completel… (and thereby the continuance of “business as usual” by the 1% for whom Occupy Wall [...]


  7. [...] Tanks around the world, I would venture to suggest that BEST may have also done this to try and hasten the final nails being put driven into the coffin of those that seek to perpetuate a completel… (and thereby the continuance of “business as usual” by the 1% for whom Occupy Wall [...]


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